Kevin Rose’s 2008 predictions

Posted Wednesday, December 26, 2007 at 8:39 pm by Jason Cartwright |

Yesterday Kevin posted his predictions for the year ahead. I agree with some points, some not so much. So here’s my response to Kevin’s predictions.

1: Apple will launch a 3G iPhone powered by a broadcom chipset.
Agreed, although this isn’t exactly a new concept, it’s been rumoured for some time now. To add to this with some local news, I’ve heard from a contact at Telstra that they will in fact be getting the iPhone.

Telstra’s current practice is not to retail any phones that can’t use their Next G network.. i.e. 3G Phones. So assuming a 3G iPhone is announced at Macworld in January, it’ll probably ship around mid-year. I expect Australia won’t see the iPhone until then.

2: Apple will launch a second (cheaper) iphone w/limited functionality.
Ah.. they already did, it’s the iPod Touch

3: Tivo will be acquired.
The question is by who.. still yet to launch in Australia.

4: Tumblr will be acquired.
No comment

5: More sites will adopt OpenID, but only geeks will notice.
I think the OpenID will be more likely to die off than gain traction. As Kevin suggests, no one main stream cares of understands, despite managing multiple online identities being one of people’s biggest pain points. I can use LiveID with many more services that OpenID. Now Microsoft’s has partnerships with Digg and Facebook it’d be great if they adopted LiveID.

6: Google/Microsoft/Facebook will compete w/Amazon in the web services market.
Interesting idea.

7: My family still won’t understand RSS, or use it.
Parents may not, but look to more RSS subscribers in 2008. Built right into browsers nowadays, makes reading the latest feeds a breeze, saves time so it’s just a matter of getting the message out. 

8: Semantic Web won’t take off in 2008.
No comment.

9: Semitransparent ‘overlay’ video ads will finally monetize short-form content.
Finally!! Ad breaks frustrate me to no end. If we can watch content for free, content producers get paid without disruptive cuts to advertising to pay the bills, advertisers get to show their products and services and everyone’s happy.

10: Microsoft will launch a new 360 w/integrated HDDVD/HDMI/250GB HD.
The HD-DVD is a bold prediction given Microsoft have repeatedly said they wouldn’t do this. As for the larger HDD, that’s pretty much a given. It hasn’t been so much of an issue here yet because we don’t get Movies and TV show downloads.. Microsoft… ???